In the volatile landscape of Australian federal politics, few figures command as much attention—and controversy—as Pauline Hanson, the leader of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation. Recent weeks have seen her party surge in the polls, overtaking the fractured Coalition in primary vote support for the first time in its history. This dramatic shift has fueled bold declarations from Hanson herself: One Nation is not content with merely holding the balance of power or playing kingmaker.
Instead, she envisions her party as a genuine contender for government, vowing to dismantle the current Labor administration under Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and ultimately seize the reins of power.
The catalyst for this renewed confidence came in early 2026 polling data. Multiple surveys, including those from YouGov, DemosAU, Roy Morgan, and Sky News Pulse, placed One Nation’s primary vote between 22% and 25%, often ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition (which has hovered around 20-22% amid internal divisions and a recent split). Labor, while still leading on two-party preferred measures (typically in the mid-50s), has seen its primary support dip to the low 30s in some polls.
These numbers reflect deep voter dissatisfaction with the major parties, exacerbated by ongoing issues like cost-of-living pressures, housing affordability, immigration policies, and perceived failures in national leadership.
Hanson has seized on this momentum with unapologetic rhetoric. In interviews and public statements, she has repeatedly asserted that “nothing is stopping” One Nation from progressing from its current modest parliamentary presence—just four Senators and one Member of the House of Representatives (held by former Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce after his defection)—to becoming the official opposition, and eventually forming government. “We’re going for opposition first—then government,” she declared in one Sky News appearance. “Yes, we can form government. It’s a big ask, but nothing can hold us back!”
This ambition marks a significant evolution for One Nation. Historically a minor party focused on protest votes and Senate influence, it now positions itself as an alternative to both Labor and the Liberals. Hanson argues that Australians are “fed up” with the major parties’ leadership voids, betrayal on key issues like borders and economic management, and failure to deliver practical solutions. She points to her party’s platform—lower taxes, stricter border controls, genuine housing reforms, and rejection of what she calls “Labor’s fairy tales”—as resonating with everyday voters who feel ignored by Canberra elites.
The path Hanson outlines is clear and aggressive: secure a massive surge in primary votes, field competitive candidates in every electorate, and refuse any compromise with the established parties that she accuses of selling out the nation. No more “playing nice,” she insists. One Nation will contest seats aggressively, particularly in regional and outer-suburban areas where disillusionment runs high. Analysts note that if current trends hold, the party could realistically challenge for dozens of lower house seats—potentially up to 30 or more in optimistic models—enough to eclipse the Coalition as the main non-Labor force.
Yet, the road to government remains extraordinarily steep. Australia’s preferential voting system favors major parties through preference flows. While Coalition voters have historically directed strong preferences to One Nation (around 75% in past elections), the reverse is not guaranteed, and Labor-Greens preferences typically flow heavily against right-wing minor parties. To form government outright, One Nation would need to win at least 76 seats in the 151-member House of Representatives—a feat that would require not just massive national support but targeted breakthroughs in hundreds of electorates.
Most experts view this as highly improbable in the near term, with the next federal election likely due by 2028 (following the May 2025 poll that returned Labor to power).
More realistically, Hanson eyes the balance-of-power role in both chambers, potentially expanding her Senate crossbench influence while chipping away at Labor’s majority. Her strategy includes building momentum through upcoming state elections and capitalizing on any further Coalition instability. The recent Nationals-Liberals fracture has created openings, with figures like Joyce aligning closer to One Nation and regional voters shifting rightward.
Critics, including Prime Minister Albanese, dismiss One Nation as a “divisive force” that thrives on fear rather than solutions. Albanese has labeled the party’s rise “worrying” and accused it of exploiting vulnerabilities without offering viable governance. Detractors argue that Hanson’s policies—often centered on immigration restrictions, anti-multiculturalism rhetoric, and skepticism toward climate measures—appeal to a narrow base but alienate moderates and urban voters needed for broad electoral success.
Supporters, however, see Hanson as the authentic voice of forgotten Australians. They praise her consistency on issues like sovereignty, economic nationalism, and resistance to what they view as globalist agendas. In a political era marked by populism worldwide, One Nation’s surge mirrors trends in other democracies where traditional parties lose ground to insurgent movements.
Whether Hanson’s declarations prove prophetic or remain aspirational rhetoric depends on sustained polling gains, effective candidate recruitment, and the major parties’ ability to respond. For now, her challenge has injected fresh drama into Australian politics, forcing Labor and the remnants of the Coalition to confront a resurgent right-wing force that refuses to be sidelined.
As Hanson herself puts it, the battle is on. One Nation is doubling down, ready to fight for every vote and every seat. In a fractured electorate hungry for change, the question is no longer if Pauline Hanson can disrupt the status quo—but how far her movement can push before the establishment pushes back.